Covered, fee-driven compounding. A 2.0% yield on a roughly 45% payout against adjusted earnings is covered income, not a stretch: $5.73 a quarter, raised in January 2026 by 10% — the largest increase since 2021 — for a 17th consecutive year, after a record $698 billion of 2025 net inflows took assets under management to $14 trillion and $5 billion was returned to shareholders in 2025. The yield is modest; the growth and the coverage are the story.
Key risk: Market-linked fees — revenue follows assets under management, so a market fall cuts the fee base that funds the dividend, and acquisition-related noncash charges (GIP and HPS) already cut 2025 GAAP operating income and EPS even as adjusted results rose.
Changes if: Adjusted earnings fall far enough that the payout pushes well past 45% of adjusted earnings, or net inflows reverse and the fee base shrinks faster than costs can follow.
- ✓Payout-coverage check: About 45% on an adjusted basis — $22.92 indicated — in the mid-40% range the company targets for an asset manager, leaving room for reinvestment and further growth. Covered, with more than half of adjusted earnings retained.
- ✓Yield check: 2.0% indicated — $5.73/qtr × 4 at the $1,118.25 close on Oct. 23, 2026. Real, earned yield from fee earnings, not a special or a return of capital.
- ✓Dividend growth check: 17 consecutive years of increases; the January 2026 raise lifted the quarterly dividend 10%, from $5.21 to $5.73, the strongest step-up since 2022, with an additional 7 million shares authorized for repurchase.
What this grade doesn't say: It screens the dividend only — covered, real, compounding. It says nothing about valuation or price: a well-covered payer can still be overpriced, and its price can still fall.