Covered — regular payout thin, special is a bonus. A 1.70% regular yield on a 44.11% regular payout is covered, toll-road income: $1.30 a quarter, raised from $1.25 in 2026 and paid Sep. 25, 2026. This card scores only the regular dividend — the $6.15 annual special paid Mar. 26, 2026, on top of the $1.30 regular payment (a $7.45 total March payment) is variable and is not counted in the yield, the payout or the verdict. Q3 2026 earnings of $3.02 a share beat the $2.99 consensus, so the regular rate rests on exchange earnings, not on the special.
Key risk: Trading-volume risk — CME’s revenue follows futures and options volumes, so a long quiet stretch in rates, equities or commodities markets cuts the earnings behind both the regular dividend and any special.
Changes if: Regular payout pushes well past 44.11%, or the board cuts the regular $1.30 rate. A skipped special alone does not change this verdict — it was never counted.
- ✓Payout-coverage check: 44.11% on the regular dividend — the $5.20 indicated regular dividend leaves more than half of earnings retained; specials are excluded from this ratio.
- !Yield check: 1.70% indicated, regular only — $1.30/qtr × 4 at the $305.71 close on Oct. 23, 2026. Anyone quoting a 3.7% figure is counting the variable special as if it were promised.
- ✓Special-dividend check: The Mar. 26, 2026 payment totalled $7.45: $1.30 regular plus a $6.15 annual special. Specials have recurred in recent years but are declared year by year and never count toward this verdict.
What this grade doesn't say: It screens the dividend only — covered, real, compounding. It says nothing about valuation or price: a well-covered payer can still be overpriced, and its price can still fall.