Covered, with growth-led guidance behind it. A 2.77% yield on about 59% of guided earnings is covered income: $0.30 a quarter, payable November 20, 2026, at the $43.28 close on October 23, 2026. NiSource reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02 to $2.07, with a 9%–10% compound annual growth target for 2026–2033, and second-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS was $0.16. The yield is modest because the price has recovered from its $38.42 low toward $43.28, not because the payout is thin.
Key risk: Execution across six states: the growth story depends on regulated capital spending being approved and recovered in rates. A guidance cut below about $2.00 would push the payout past 60% and thin the cushion, and the shares sit well below their $49.21 52-week high.
Changes if: 2026 guidance is cut, the payout pushes past ~70% of guidance, or the dividend is held flat while the company keeps guiding 9%–10% earnings growth. Any of those would move this card to warn.
- ✓Payout-coverage check: About 59% of guided earnings — $1.20 indicated against the $2.02–$2.07 2026 guidance range, midpoint $2.045. Covered on the company's own forward line, not just on trailing results.
- !Dividend growth check: No multi-year increase streak is asserted on this card: the $0.30 rate is current and guidance-backed, but a verified streak count was not established for this snapshot, so growth is graded as unproven here rather than assumed.
- ✓Guidance check: 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.02–$2.07 was reaffirmed with second-quarter results, alongside a 9%–10% compound annual growth target for 2026–2033. The payout is covered if that guidance holds; it is the guidance, not the dividend history, that carries this grade.
What this grade doesn't say: It screens the dividend only — covered, real, compounding. It says nothing about valuation or price: a well-covered payer can still be overpriced, and its price can still fall.