Covered, rebuilding its payout. A 2.4% yield on a roughly 30% payout against trailing earnings is covered income with a wide cushion: $0.50 a quarter, raised in July 2026 by 11% from $0.45 after the Federal Reserve's 2026 stress test left the stress capital buffer at 2.5%, alongside $2.5 billion of third-quarter repurchases. The payout is being rebuilt from its post-2020 reset, not stretched.
Key risk: Credit costs rising — the third-quarter 2026 provision for credit losses rose to $1.03 billion from $681 million a year earlier, with a higher allowance for commercial and industrial and auto loans; if charge-offs follow the provision up, the earnings behind the dividend thin.
Changes if: Earnings fall far enough that the payout pushes well past 30% of earnings, or the CET1 ratio falls toward its 8.5% requirement while buybacks continue.
- ✓Payout-coverage check: About 30% of trailing earnings — $2.00 indicated against $6.58 of trailing EPS. Covered, with roughly two-thirds of earnings retained or returned through repurchases.
- ✓Yield check: 2.4% indicated — $0.50/qtr × 4 at the $82.39 close on Oct. 23, 2026. Real, earned yield from banking earnings, not a special or a return of capital.
- ✓Capital check: 10.0% standardized CET1 ratio, preliminary at Sept. 30, 2026, against an 8.5% total CET1 requirement (4.5% minimum plus a 2.5% stress capital buffer and a 1.5% GSIB surcharge). Above the requirement, though thinner than a year earlier (11.0%).
What this grade doesn't say: It screens the dividend only — covered, real, compounding. It says nothing about valuation or price: a well-covered payer can still be overpriced, and its price can still fall.