Covered on 2025 cash flow, but working-capital swings make single-year coverage unreliable. Bunge pays $0.72 a quarter, $2.88 annualized, approved at the May 2026 annual meeting, up $0.02 from the prior year. Dividends of $383 million are 18% of 2025 free cash flow of $2,186 million, a pass, and net debt is about 1.1x operating cash flow on the stated basis, a pass. The caution is the cash flow itself: operating cash flow was negative in 2023 and 2024 on working-capital swings, so the payout's cover in any single year cannot be taken as settled, and the card grades warn.
Key risk: Agri-trading working capital swings violently with crop prices: operating cash flow was negative in both 2023 and 2024 before rebounding in 2025, so coverage in any single year is unreliable.
Changes if: Operating cash flow stays positive and the payout stays under 60% of free cash flow for two straight years, or working-capital swings push it over 80%.
- !Cash-flow cover 17.5% of FY2025 free cash flow, pass (<60%); 2023-2024 operating cash flow was negative on working capital.
- ✓Leverage Net debt about 1.1x operating cash flow on a stated basis, pass; no EBITDA leverage figure is asserted.
- ✓Dividend history Rate raised at the May 2026 AGM; increases in the record shown; no cut.
- ✓Trap screen Yield 2.84%, payout under 100%, no cut; not a trap pattern.
What this grade doesn't say: It screens the dividend only — covered, real, compounding. It says nothing about valuation or price: a well-covered payer can still be overpriced, and its price can still fall.