Raised 20%, covered in cash. A 2.43% yield is modest but real, raised 20% in May 2026 from $1.25 to $1.50 a quarter, and third-quarter 2026 results back it: adjusted EPS of $3.04 beat $2.91 guidance, sales rose to $2.6 billion from $2.3 billion, and $225 million of free cash flow covered $134 million of dividends paid in the quarter.
Key risk: Cyclical containerboard pricing and cost pressure — higher labor, freight and fiber costs in the third quarter — plus Wallula mill restructuring charges of about $205 million spread across late 2025 and early 2026, Greif integration, and a softer fourth-quarter adjusted EPS guide of $2.81.
Changes if: Adjusted earnings fall back toward the trailing GAAP level, or free cash flow stops covering the dividend — restructuring charges turning from special items into a recurring drag would be the tell.
- ✓Payout-coverage check: About 78% of trailing GAAP EPS of $7.70, which is depressed by special items (facility closures, acquisition and integration costs, Wallula restructuring); on cash, $134 million of third-quarter dividends were 60% of $225 million of third-quarter free cash flow — covered.
- ✓Yield check: 2.43% indicated — $1.50/qtr × 4 at the $247.29 close on Oct. 23, 2026. Real, recurring yield, not a special.
- ✓Dividend growth check: Raised to $1.50 a quarter from $1.25 in May 2026 — a 20% increase — after holding $1.25 through 2025 and early 2026.
What this grade doesn't say: It screens the dividend only — covered, real, compounding. It says nothing about valuation or price: a well-covered payer can still be overpriced, and its price can still fall.