Covered, compounding — a young payer growing fast. A 3.19% yield on the new $1.17 quarterly rate, raised 15% in September 2026 from $1.02, is covered at about a 49% trailing payout, with 2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance raised to $18.4–$18.8 billion. The payer is young — the first dividend came in December 2023 — so this grades on cash coverage and the raise pace, not a long streak.
Key risk: Competition and leverage — a price war or subscriber losses hit service revenue, and the balance sheet leaves less room for error than an unlevered payer.
Changes if: The payout pushes well past about 49%, or adjusted free cash flow guidance falls below the $18.4 billion low end.
- ✓Payout-coverage check: About 49% trailing — the $4.68 indicated dividend is covered by earnings, and adjusted free cash flow guidance of $18.4–$18.8 billion covers it several times over.
- ✓Yield check: 3.19% indicated — $1.17/qtr × 4 at the $146.54 close on Oct. 23, 2026. Ordinary cash dividend, not a special.
- !Dividend growth check: Only 3 annual increases since initiation in December 2023 ($0.65 to $0.88 to $1.02 to $1.17) — a short history, but every step up.
What this grade doesn't say: It screens the dividend only — covered, real, compounding. It says nothing about valuation or price: a well-covered payer can still be overpriced, and its price can still fall.