High yield, uncovered by trailing earnings. A 6.49% yield on a 122.0% trailing payout is not covered by trailing earnings: $1.64 a quarter, unchanged since 2025, now exceeds what the company earned per share over the trailing year. This is an ordinary company dividend, not a return-of-capital distribution — but at this payout the dividend depends on an earnings recovery, not on current earnings.
Key risk: Parcel volume and pricing — Amazon volume reductions, weaker e-commerce demand, and labor costs have already compressed earnings; another soft year leaves the board choosing between the dividend and the balance sheet.
Changes if: The trailing payout stays above 100% for another year, or the quarterly rate is frozen again or cut. A cut after two flat years would re-grade this card outright.
- ✕Payout-coverage check: 122.0% of trailing earnings — $6.56 a year against trailing earnings below the dividend rate. Not covered by current earnings; the dividend is being paid out of cash flow and reserves, not out of the year's profit.
- !Yield check: 6.49% indicated — $1.64/qtr × 4 at the $101.06 close on Oct. 23, 2026. High, and the high yield itself is the warning: the market has priced the shares down as earnings fell.
- !Dividend growth check: Flat at $1.64 since 2025 — the last raise, from $1.63, came in late 2024. No growth while earnings do not cover the rate.
What this grade doesn't say: It screens the dividend only — covered, real, compounding. It says nothing about valuation or price: a well-covered payer can still be overpriced, and its price can still fall.