Covered on operating cash flow, priced as growth. Vistra paid $308 million against $1,318 million of free cash flow in fiscal 2025, net debt is under three times adjusted EBITDA, and the quarterly rate has risen every year since 2019. At 0.64% the yield is under the 1% line, so the card is graded warn: a growing power dividend, not income at this price.
Key risk: Power prices, hedges and the Cogentrix acquisition: adjusted EBITDA is hedged through 2026, but leverage near 3 times leaves little room if prices fall as hedges roll.
Changes if: Net debt/EBITDA crosses 3x on guidance EBITDA for a full year, or the $0.23 rate is cut.
- ✓Cash-flow cover 23.4% of FY2025 free cash flow, pass (<60%).
- ✓Leverage About 2.7x to 2.9x on adjusted EBITDA, pass (<3x), approximate.
- ✓Dividend history Quarterly rate $0.125 in 2019 to about $0.229 in 2026, raised every year in the series shown; no cut.
- !Yield Yield 0.64%, under the 1% line: a growth holding, not income.
What this grade doesn't say: It screens the dividend only — covered, real, compounding. It says nothing about valuation or price: a well-covered payer can still be overpriced, and its price can still fall.